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The Japanese government is seeing some light at the end of the tunnel. The Industrial production figures for March 2009 shows a 1.6% growth compared to February.

The positive growth rate comes on the back of six months of continuous negative growth. The growth could be a function of the consistent measures taken by the government through lot of infrastructure spending and interest rate cuts.

The revival is primarily due to fast depletion of inventory and also due to small revival in export orders.  Most of the leading industries are indicating a reasonable revival in the growth over the next two months.

A government Survey of Manufacturers expect the overall industrial production to grow by a healthy 4.3% in April and again at 6.1% in May. If that happens, we can expect a decent economic revival across the globe.

US FED is planning to keep on hold the repurchase of treasuries and mortgage securities in the wake of positive signals on economic recovery. There are signs of slowing down in the fall of housing prices, and automobile sales are also showing some recovery signs.

The US FED has thus decided to hold off on committing more funds, and see whether the economic recovery signs continue. A review of the stance is likely in the next US FED meeting slated in May 2009.

The Swine Flu is spreading thick and fast.  Countries as far as New Zealand and Israel have reported Swine Flu infections even as WHO is taking rapid measures to contain it from spreading further.

While the death toll from Mexico has already crossed the 150 mark, luckily no deaths have been reported in any of the other countries.  WHO says that every country needs to be alert and identify infected people on priority basis. It says that it has the danger of turning into a disastrous pandemic, if collective and quick action is not taken by every country.

Over 1600 people infected by the Swine Flu in Mexico alone , are under observation.

The latest economic growth projections by the International Monetary Fund is sounding more pessimistic.

It has revised the global GDP growth for 2009 from 0.5% positive, to 1.3% negative. It has also revised downwards the growth of all the major countries. While it expects UK to degrow by 4.1% in 2009, it is expecting US to degrow by 2.8%.

It has also revised the GDP for Japan to -6.2% and for Germany to 5.6%.

IMF is also expecting UK , Germany and Italy to post negative GDP growth in the coming year 2010.

These projections were given by IMF last week before the outbreak of Swine Flu.  If the Swine Flu becomes a Pandemic, then the GDP growth for 2009 might have to be revised downwards for all the affected countries like Mexico, US and Europe.

The dangerous Swine Flu has so far killed nearly 150 people in Mexico alone. Mexico first reported the disease few days back and WHO authorities swung into action immediately.
WHO has now confirmed that the Swine Flu has spread to more countries and moved it into highest level of global alert.

US has so far reported over 43 cases of Swine Flu infected people and has now started screening every passenger coming from Mexico. It has also issued a warning to all it’s citizens to avoid touring Mexico till further notice, with a view to contain the virus from spreading further.
UK and other European countries have already swung into action and have started distributing medicines to all key city health centers on a priority basis.
A WHO preliminary review says that the developing world is ill equipped to handle the crisis, and even basic awareness among the senior government level officials is lacking. WHO is satisfied with the preparedness of the developed countries like US, Japan and Europe for handling the disease.
Japan is said to be having vaccines to cover 20% of their population while UK is equipped to provide the vaccine to 50% of their population.
In contrast, the second most populous nation in the world, India is said to be having vaccines to support only 0.0025% of their population. That is precisely the reason why WHO is fearing that this disease might turn into a Pandemic anytime.
The level of preparedness of China could also be very low, may be at around 5%.
The spread of the virus is already costing the airlines and hotel industry across US and Europe, and it may start affecting the food industry also in the coming weeks.
Mexico is already reeling under severe economic recession, and the Swine Flu could only delay the recovery further. Let us pray to God to help us tide over the crisis.

The Ford CEO Allan Mulally said that the company is now burning less cash than what it did in the last quarter. The auto maker has burnt 3.7 billion US dollars in the first three months of 2009, which is far lower than the 7,2 billion it burnt in the last quarter of 2008.
He was also confident that going forward, it will be able to reduce the cash burn on a quarterly basis. Whether the company will be able to start making profits at least by 2011 is a billion dollar question.
In the coming weeks, the company is expected to work for a major debt reduction either through negotiated swap with the creditors and also the GM workers union, or by going in for government administered bankruptcy.
Few of the major creditors are said to be insisting on bankruptcy filing since they have credit default swap cover.

US regulators shut down Idaho Bank few days bank and most of the deposits of the failed bank , worth around 225 million US dollars, has been shifted to US Bank Corp.
The FDIC said that the failed Idaho Bank had around 374 million dollars of deposits, and around 489 million dollars in assets. US Bank Corp has taken over seven branches of the failed bank, and will be renaming them as US Bank Corp shortly.
So far 29 banks have been closed down in US in the year 2009 alone. This is substantially higher than the 25 banks that were shut down in the entire year 2008.

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Most of the leading banks and lending institutions of US have lent over 28 billion dollars to General Motors which is sinking now. Also GM owes nearly 20 billion to the worker’s union towards a health cover plan.
Few of the lenders have credit default swaps and hence are reluctant to agree for a equity swap for their debt.
And with hardly another five weeks time only available, it is very difficult for all the major lenders to come to a comprehensive swap deal.
Hence GM might go for forced bankruptcy which is the wish of the Treasury. In that scenario, good part of debt will be out of the books and also employee benefits might be cut down drastically. Let us all hope that GM will come out of the current terrible pace quickly and successfully.